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This commit updates the chi2 analysis with two big changes:
- I now apply the energy bias correction in the likelihood per particle
and not per fit. So there is no longer an energy bias parameter for
electron + muon fits, instead we just apply the energy bias correction
for electrons to the electron and the energy bias correction for muons
to the muon and then add the two kinetic energies.
- I now apply the energy bias correction terms to the data instead of
the Monte Carlo. This does introduce an issue with discontinuities in
the likelihood but it makes everything easier to interpret. The
discontinuities *should* be correctly taken into account by the MCMC.
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This commit updates the chi2 script to correct for the energy bias of
the reconstruction relative to Monte Carlo.
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This commit updates the estimate_errors() function so that it works
without a list of constraints and uses arrays of low and high bounds
passed in instead of hardcoded constraints.
I can now call this function from the chi2 analysis to get the stepsizes
before running the MCMC.
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This commit updates the chi2 script to make sure that the energy
resolution is nonzero otherwise we get nans.
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This commit updates the first bins that we use before applying the
energy resolution in the chi2 script. The reason we do this is because
when adding the energy resolution, events outside of the original bins
may migrate into the first and last bin.
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- add get_multinomial_prob() function to stats.py
- add plot_hist2_data_mc() function to do the normal particle id plot
but also print p values
- other small bug fixes
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This commit adds the new file sddm/stats.py to and adds a function to
correctly sample a Monte Carlo histogram when computing p-values. In
particular, I now take into account the uncertainty on the total number
of expected events by drawing from a gamma distribution, which is the
posterior of the Poisson likelihood function with a prior of 1/lambda.
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This commit adds a first draft of a script called chi2. This script calculates
a chi2 for the null hypothesis test if the events in the energy range 20 MeV -
10 GeV match what we expect from atmospheric neutrino events.
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